Research: Discussions in the Suomi24 online community on demographic change differ from statistical reality

Source: ETLA press release, 16 October 2026 (in Finnish)

Citizens’ online discussions and statistical reality differ significantly when it comes to phenomena related to demographic change, such as immigration. Although Finland’s population structure has undergone major transformations, discussions on the Suomi24 online forum are often triggered by factors that differ markedly from what official statistics might suggest. According to a recent study, for example, the sharp decline in birth rates is not generally perceived as a long-term demographic trend. Discussions on immigration, meanwhile, focus heavily on asylum seeking, security, and social benefits, while the economic benefits of immigration receive little attention in online debates.

Major demographic developments reflected in official statistics, such as the steep decline in fertility or record-high net immigration, do not appear to be directly mirrored in citizens’ discussions on the Suomi24 forum. A recent study published by ETLA indicates that demographic phenomena, or even demographic shocks, often rise to prominence on social media as a by-product of other social debates and sometimes for reasons entirely different from those implied by statistical trends. 

“For example, during the refugee influx of 2015, discussion within the online community was highly intensive, even though the impact of refugees on Finland’s net migration figures was relatively small. By contrast, the refugee flow from Ukraine in 2022 received considerably less attention in discussions, despite appearing likely to leave a much larger mark on Finland’s demographic history, as net migration increased sharply between 2022 and 2024,” explains Emeritus Professor Juha Alho.

In their study, How Do Demographic Shocks Appear on the Suomi24 Discussion Forum? (Etla Working Paper 151), Juha Alho and Julian Lin analyzed a total of 1.26 million messages posted on the Suomi24 discussion forum between 2001 and 2023. The study focused on three key demographic processes: fertility, mortality, and migration. In addition to the researchers’ own qualitative reading, Google’s AI assistant Gemini was used as part of the analytical process.

The newly published study forms part of the LIFECON project (Life-Course and economic implications of demographic change), funded by the Strategic Research Council of the Academy of Finland and carried out jointly by the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, ETLA Economic Research, and the University of Helsinki.

Social Media as a Source of Research Data

Social media can serve as a valuable complementary data source alongside traditional register-based and survey research. The contributors to the Suomi24 online community represent a self-selected group, and the opinions expressed do not reflect the views of any clearly identifiable population group.

Because discussions are conducted largely anonymously, however, they reveal citizens’ attitudes and beliefs without the effects of social pressure or survey non-response. As a social media platform, Suomi24 can therefore also serve as a useful source for tracking changes in public interests and concerns, says Emeritus Professor Juha Alho.

“The participants on anonymous discussion forums are highly diverse. About one-fifth of contributors refer to factual information and are capable of engaging in complex argumentation, whereas the majority rely primarily on their own attitudes and beliefs. As researchers, we have been able to observe in real time how citizens’ interests and language change during various crises. Another interesting finding was that the actual subject of many messages often appeared to be something other than the demographic change visible in the statistics.”

According to Alho, discussions did address demographic processes such as fertility, mortality, and migration, but typically as a secondary topic and often for reasons quite different from what statistical developments alone would suggest.

“A good example is the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when messages focused less on mortality itself and more on vaccines,” Alho adds.

Key Findings

Fertility

The dramatic decline in fertility in Finland between 2010 and 2024 is not generally  noted for its long-term demograohic implications, but rather as refleccting changes is attitudes and norms. Discussion participants often attributed falling birth rates to changes in societal attitudes, including women’s participation in the labour market, feminism, and the weakening of family institutions. Academic research on fertility was rarely cited in these discussions.

Mortality

Although population ageing and chronic diseases are the primary drivers of mortality trends, mortality as a topic generated little interest on the discussion forum, except during the pandemic years of 2020–2022. Even then, most messages focused not on mortality itself but on vaccinations, vaccine side effects, and pandemic restrictions. Little attention was paid to the steady rise in life expectancy or to the fact that declining mortality contributes to population ageing.

Migration

Online discussions about immigration focused heavily on asylum seeking, security, and social benefits. Practical issues related to integration and the economic benefits of labour immigration received relatively little attention. Messages sometimes contained suspicions with undertones of racism toward Muslim immigrants, while similar attitudes were largely absent in discussions concerning immigrants from countries such as India or Vietnam.

Publication

Etla Julkaisut Working Papers 151, 
Miten väestöshokit näkyvät Suomi24-keskustelupalstalla? 
Alho Juha, Lin Julian

Further Information

Emeritus Professor Juha Alho
Tel. +358 400 271 332
Email: juha.mikko.alho [at] gmail.com