Research results
Explore the research findings from the LIFECON project on the following topics:
All scientific articles for each year can be found here.
The results show that the effect of first-born girls on fertility has changed over the decades, suggesting that the preference for sons in the 1960s to 1980s shifted towards sex neutrality in the 1990s and even to a slight preference for daughters in the 2000s and 2010s.
As the costs of raising a girl are not greater than those of raising a boy in Finland, the results suggest that the shift might be due to increased female bargaining power. Past literature has shown that females prefer girls over boys or are more neutral than males, who prefer having sons over daughters more often.
Scientific article Riukula, K. Preference for sons: still a trend? Evidence from individual-level data from Finland, 1960–2015. Rev Econ Household (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-024-09718-5
Maternal job loss increases the probability of a son becoming a parent, while paternal job loss decreases it. For paternal job loss, I find negative effects on son’s other outcomes, such as having a spouse, earnings, and employment which might drive the effects on their fertility outcomes. Instead, maternal job loss has no effect on son’s other outcomes.
Riukula, Krista (9.1.2024). “Childhood Shocks and Fertility: Evidence from Parental Job Loss”. ETLA Working Papers No 112.
Education increases the likelihood of having children for women but does not affect family formation for men. The results challenge the common perception that education may hinder family formation for women but helps men in finding a relationship.
ETLA's report: Virtanen Hanna, Silliman Mikko, Kuuppelomäki Tiina, Huttunen Kristiina. Koulutuksen vaikutus perheen perustamiseen miehillä ja naisilla. ETLA Working Papers 116 (2024)
Grandparents serve as a significant source of support for many families with children. However, the ability to provide support depends on the grandparents' life situation, and sometimes, grandparents themselves may be in need of support. Based on our research, grandparents' characteristics that increase the likelihood of support for adult children and grandchildren are associated with mothers having a lower likelihood of purchasing antidepressants. On the other hand, mothers whose own parents are elderly and unwell use antidepressants more frequently than other mothers.
Scientific Article: Grandparental support and maternal depression: Do grandparents’ characteristics matter more for separating mothers?
Niina Metsä-Simola, Anna Baranowska-Rataj, Hanna Remes, Mine Kühn, Pekka Martikainen (2024) Population studies
Doi https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2023.2287493
Press release: Antidepressant Use Lower in Moms Who Have Support From Grandparents, Taylor and Francis
Helsingin sanomat, Tiede 22.2.2024: Isovanhempien tuki voi suojata äitiä masennukselta (In Finnish)
World News Today 16.2.2024: The Support of Grandparents Linked to Lower Antidepressant Use in Mothers, Study Finds
Abortions and preterm births temporarily increased after the significant alcohol tax reduction in 2004. Preterm births increased only in the lowest income household category. The observed phenomenon lasted for about six months from the beginning of the alcohol tax reduction and may be attributed to the effects of increased alcohol consumption on pregnancies. The study compared trends in birth outcomes before and after the tax reduction on March 1, 2004.
Scientific Article: Luukkonen, J., Junna, L., Remes, H., & Martikainen, P. (2023). The association of lowered alcohol prices with birth outcomes and abortions: A population‐based natural experiment. Addiction, 118(5), 836-844.
https://doi.org/10.1111/add.16119
Press release (HY and Addiction) 16.2.2023: When alcohol becomes cheaper, abortions and adverse birth outcomes increase, new research shows
Childhood socio-economic disadvantage appears to be linked to the risk of developing dementia. Elevated risk of dementia was observed in individuals who had lived in crowded conditions during childhood or in families where the father was a single parent. Living in Eastern and Northern Finland also increased the risk of dementia. Specifically, the association between crowded living conditions and the risk of dementia was partly linked to lower socio-economic status in adulthood.
Scientific Article: Korhonen, K., Leinonen, T., Tarkiainen, L., Einiö, E., & Martikainen, P. (2023). Childhood socio-economic circumstances and dementia: prospective register-based cohort study of adulthood socio-economic and cardiovascular health mediators. International Journal of Epidemiology, 52(2), 523-535.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac205
Parents' mental health disorders are known to be associated with an increased risk of self-harm in children. However, on the other hand, a child's self-harm is also linked to the well-being of the parent. The study found that the likelihood of a parent using mental health-related services (such as medication purchases, hospitalizations, and sick leaves) increases when their children are hospitalized for self-harm during adolescence. The increase in service utilization was short-lived and returned to near baseline levels within the first few months. The increase in service utilization was observed only in mothers, particularly those who were employed or highly educated.
Scientific Article: Pitkänen, J., Remes, H., Aaltonen, M., & Martikainen, P. (2023). Moderating role of sociodemographic factors in parental psychiatric treatment before and after offspring severe self-harm. Journal of affective disorders, 327, 145-154.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2023.02.015
Socioeconomic status is known to be associated with healthcare utilization, and specifically, the use of specialized medical care is more common in higher socioeconomic positions. The study observed that similar differences in healthcare utilization can also be seen among young individuals who have self-harmed. Based on the results of the studies, it appears that the higher the education level of a young person's parent, the higher the likelihood that the young person who has self-harmed will make psychotropic drug purchases and use hospital-level healthcare. These socioeconomic differences were particularly evident following incidents of self-harm.
Scientific Article: Pitkänen, J., Remes, H., Aaltonen, M., & Martikainen, P. (2022). Socioeconomic differences in psychiatric treatment before and after self-harm: an observational study of 4,280 adolescents and young adults. BMC psychiatry, 22(1), 1-13.
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12888-021-03654-9
In previous studies, it has been observed that especially in men, being unmarried is associated with health risks. However, we wanted to investigate whether similar connections still exist today, as living alone and other forms of relationships have become more socially accepted. We found that men and women in marriage have a lower risk of cardiovascular diseases than those in cohabitation or living alone. Divorce increased the risk of cardiovascular diseases, and its impact persisted even after entering into a new marriage. Disparities in both men and women have increased from the 1990s to the 2010s. In today's diverse society, marriage has become an even more crucial factor in protecting health.
Scientific Article: Silventoinen, K., Korhonen, K., & Martikainen, P. (2022). Changing associations of coronary heart disease incidence with current partnership status and marital history over three decades. SSM-population health, 18, 101080.
Despite transition to partial disability pension and thus part-time work, physical workload decreased for only one in five of the respondents, and this workload change was not associated with later transition to full disability pension. In addition to reduced working hours, workplace adjustments may be needed for those on partial disability pension who find their work physically demanding.
Scientific article: Wallius M-A, Kouvonen A, Ervasti J, Leinonen T, Airaksinen J, Lallukka T. Are changes in perceived physical workload and strenuousness of work among partial disability pensioners associated with full disability pension? Scand J Public Health, published online 28 March 2025. https://doi.org/10.1177/14034948251326706
The study found that the migration of highly educated Finnish-born individuals is often temporary, even though it is frequently perceived as permanent. The majority of both men and women who move abroad eventually return to Finland, bringing new knowledge and skills with them.
Sweden is the most common destination for emigration (22% of women and 20% of men). The length of stay abroad is usually relatively short, with only 5% of female and 3% of male returnees with higher education having lived abroad for more than ten years.
Male returnees are better integrated into working life than females. Nearly one-fifth of women (19%) were out of the workforce after returning to Finland, a significantly higher percentage compared to the general population of the same age group (11%).
Scientific article
Toivanen, M, Airaksinen, J, Varje, P, Koskinen, A. & Väänänen, A. (2025) Korkeakoulutetut Suomessa syntyneet paluumuuttajat ja heidän sijoittumisensa työmarkkinoille. Yhteiskuntapolitiikka 90 (1), 20–33. YP 1/25: Korkeakoulutetut paluumuuttajat työmarkkinoilla - YP-lehti
A comprehensive register study found that the income level and wage growth of highly educated male returnees were higher than those of the comparison population. No similar difference was observed among women. This effect was most pronounced in male-dominated industries, particularly in the private sector, where the gender pay gap remained significant.
Migration abroad is often perceived as a brain drain. However, a large proportion of migrants return, bringing new skills with them. Therefore, migration should be seen as a transformation, redistribution, or flow of human capital. As international mobility increases, it will be important to recognize and utilize this capital for women as well, thereby promoting equal income development.
Scientific article
Toivanen, M, Airaksinen, J, Varje, P, Turunen, J, Koskinen, A. & Väänänen, A. (2025) Time spent abroad as a source of human capital – A nationwide study. International Migration, 63, e70011. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.70011
Among the total population, employment expectancy increased from the recession of the 1990s until the 2008 financial crisis, but then stagnated. While employment continued to increase in older ages, these gains were partially offset by losses in employment expectancy at younger working ages over the last 15 years of the study period (1991– 2020).
Socioeconomic status (SES) differences in WLE were both notable and persistent. As an example, in 2020, those in upper white-collar occupations were expected to work seven (men) and nine (women) years longer than their blue-collar counterparts after the age of 25.
Report Trends in working life expectancy by education and occupational social class in Finland, 1991–2020
Review: On average, working life expectancy (WLE) in persons with low education is 30% (men) and 27% (women) shorter than in those with high education. The corresponding numbers for occupational class difference were 21% (men) and 27% (women). Low-educated persons were expected to lose more working years due to unemployment and disability retirement than high-educated persons. Among low-educated persons more working years were lost (WYL) due to unemployment and disability retirement but less due to other types of non-employment than among high-educated persons. Moreover, educational differences in WYL due to unemployment were larger than due to disability retirement.
More research is needed on socioeconomic differences in healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) and potential influences of income on working life duration.
The review was made on 21 studies from 9 different countries.
Sickness absences related to depression, anxiety, and sleep disorders among Finns significantly increase in October-November, while in the summer-September period, there are fewer sickness absences than expected. In late autumn, sickness absences are almost double compared to summer and about a quarter more than in early autumn. Manic episodes related to bipolar disorder, on the other hand, occur more frequently during the bright period in spring and summer, exceeding expectations, and less frequently during the dark period. Seasonal variation in workplaces and healthcare can increase the burden, especially in the fall when common sickness absences, such as depression, anxiety, and sleep disorders, become more prevalent. The study analyzed a total of 636,543 sickness absence periods due to mental health reasons over a 12-year period using the Finnish Social Insurance Institution's sickness absence register.
Read more from the University of Eastern Finland's press release. >>
Scientific Article: Virtanen M, Törmälehto S, Partonen T, Elovainio M, Ruuhela R, Hakulinen C, Komulainen K, Airaksinen J, Väänänen A, Koskinen A, Sund R. Seasonal patterns of sickness absence due to diagnosed mental disorders: a nationwide 12-year register linkage study. Epidemiol Psychiatr Sci. 2023 Nov 9;32:e64. doi: 10.1017/S2045796023000768
Interventions during childhood and adolescence play a key role in reducing sickness absences. The decline is mainly explained by unobserved factors that are stabilised before entering the labour market, or that do not change much during working life. The decline is also partially explained by structural changes in the workforce – more educated workers entered the labour market.
Earlier sickness absence reduces the annual proportion of time spent at work after vocational labour market training, especially among those who had sickness absence due to mental disorders. The underlying reasons are manifold, and more research would be needed. However, the results speak for a need for better targeting of labor policy measures.
Scientific article: Salonen Laura, Solovieva Svetlana, Kauhanen Antti, Hartikainen Elli, Viikari-Juntura Eira, Leinonen Taina. Does previous sickness absence affect work participation after vocational labour market training? A difference-in-differences propensity score matching approach European Journal of Public Health
Migrants care workers clearly had a lower risk of being out of work for more than ten days due to illness than those born in Finland. A recent study compared the sickness absences in Finland of migrant and non-migrant care workers in Finland.
It is much more challenging for educated women with migrant backgrounds to find employment in Finland than for educated men with migrant backgrounds or educated women of Finnish backgrounds. The study examined the transition of unemployed educated people into working life from 2014 to 2019. According to the researchers, new targeted means are needed to support the employment of women with a foreign background, and it would be important for jobs to open doors for skilled women who have moved to Finland.
Read more in the newsletter (In Finnish) >>
Scientific Article (In Finnish): Minna Toivanen, Ari Väänänen. Koulutettujen työttömien ulkomaalais- ja suomalaistaustaisten naisten työllisyyspolut Yhteiskuntapolitiikka-lehti 1/23.
In the 2017 pension reform, the old-age pension age was gradually raised upwards. Since various health problems increase with age, the key question is how the state of health makes it possible to continue working as the retirement age increases. According to our research, the healthy working years of people aged 50–65 have increased between 2000 and 2017. Working despite health problems and poor work ability has also become more common.
Read more in ETK Blog (In Finnish) >>
Scientific article: Mikko Laaksonen, Marko Elovainio, Sakari Kainulainen, Taina Leinonen, Tuija Jääskeläinen, Harri Rissanen, Seppo Koskinen, Changes in healthy and unhealthy working life expectancies among older working-age people in Finland, 2000–2017, European Journal of Public Health, Volume 32, Issue 5, October 2022, Pages 729–734.
In the years after the financial crisis, from 2010 to 2016, the expected working career lengthened for 50-year-olds, but not for 30-year-olds. An increasing number of working years are lost due to unemployment, and unemployment has replaced the disability pension as the biggest cause of lost working time. Looking at each industry, most working years are lost in the fields of accommodation and nutrition, administrative and support services, and art and entertainment.
Read more in the newsletter (In Finnish) >>
Scientific Article (In Finnish): Leinonen, Taina, Viikari-Juntura, Eira, Solovieva, Svetlana. Työajanodotteet ja menetetyt työvuodet yleisessä väestössä ja eri toimialoilla vuosina 2010, 2013 ja 2016. Työpoliittinen aikakauskirja 2/2022:10–22.
The remaining working career is extended when a person who was absent from work due to illness returns to work part-time with a partial sickness allowance. In this case, the time spent unemployed and on a full disability pension is shortened, while the time on a partial disability pension is longer. However, the working careers of partial disability pensioners are remarkably long. The use of partial sickness allowance increases working years, especially in the private sector, while in the public sector, partial disability pension is used more.
Read more in the newsletter (In Finnish>>)
Scientific article: Leinonen, Taina, Viikari-Juntura, Eira, Solovieva, Svetlana. Has the share of the working life expectancy that is spent receiving a partial or full disability pension changed in Finland over the period 2005–2018? A longitudinal register-based study. BMJ Open 2022;12:e061085.
Between 2005 and 2018, formal care use in Finland became increasingly concentrated in the last years of life and slightly decreased among older decedents. Although both trends would contribute to a decrease in care use, the occurrence of death at increasingly older ages led to an increase in unadjusted care use per capita and total use at the population level. As people are living longer, it is likely that the care use at the population level will continue to increase, governments need to prepare by strengthening and supporting the whole care system.
Scientific article: Luca Dei Bardi , Margherita Moretti , Laura Cacciani , Kaarina Korhonen , Pekka Martikainen
Trends in formal care by age and time to death: the use of healthcare and care-home facilities in Finland between 2005 and 2018
European Journal of Public Health, ckaf061,
Since around 2010, life expectancy in residential long-term care (LTC) at age 65, which represents the expected time a 65-year-old will spend in LTC during their remaining lifetime, has decreased in Finland. The study demonstrates that the decrease in life expectancy in LTC was related to sustained declines in admission rates and, particularly among women and nonmarried men, to increased death rates in LTC. Consequently, older adults spend a shorter time in LTC and those living in LTC are in worse health than before. The findings highlight that LTC services need to be designed to meet the increasing demands of older adults living in care.
Scientific article: Korhonen, K., Moustgaard, H., Murphy, M., & Martikainen, P. (2024). Trends in Life Expectancy in Residential Long-Term Care by Sociodemographic Position in 1999–2018: A Multistate Life Table Study of Finnish Older Adults.
The Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, gbae067.
https://doi.org/10.1093/geronb/gbae067
Disparities in mortality among Finns are increasing. The growth in life expectancy for those socioeconomically disadvantaged has come to a halt, while other income groups continue to see an increase in life expectancy. In 2020, life expectancy for the highest income quintile was 84 years, and for the lowest, it was 73 years. The gap has widened by approximately half a year over the past five years.
The reason for the stagnation in life expectancy in the lowest income group is unclear. Causes of death related to alcohol and tobacco continue to be more common in the lowest income quintile than among others. However, changes in these causes of death are not sufficient to explain the halt in the increase of life expectancy in the lowest income quintile. Mortality did not significantly decrease for any cause of death, except for coronary artery disease.
Read more in the news article published by Helsingin Sanomat on January 31, 2024 (in Finnish)
The suicide risk among men has decreased by over half between 1991 and 2019. The risk of male suicide has more than halved between 1991 and 2019. The relative hazard ratio of suicide in manual workers compared to managers and professionals was around 1.6 to 1.8 times higher. The period when the suicide risk started to decline differed by occupational class: a significant decrease compared to 1970s’ levels was seen for managers and professionals already in the 1990s and for lower non-manual employees around 10 years later (in the 2000s). Manual workers only reached the 1970s suicide risk of managers and professionals in the 2000s and 2010s.
The study followed five representative cohorts of Finnish working-age men for nine years each, starting from five different census years (1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010). Each cohort consisted of 300970–332318 men.
The residential area itself does not seem to significantly affect the health or mortality of the residents. However, the differences between low- and high-income neighborhoods are considerable. The total mortality of the neighborhoods belonging to the lowest income quintile in terms of average income was about double compared to the highest income quintile for both men and women. In terms of accidental and violent cases of illness and death, the differences were even slightly larger. The health differences according to the income level of the neighborhoods increased compared to the beginning of the 1990s for both sexes, but the increase in the differences was greater for women.
Scientific article: Lasse Tarkiainen, Pekka Martikainen. Long-term trends in urban-neighbourhood inequalities in cause-specific mortality and hospitalisation – multilevel analyses among individuals nested in Finnish post-code areas, 1991–2018. SSM Popul Health. 2023 Mar; 21: 101323.
Mortality is higher in winter compared to other seasons. As the population ages, the public health significance of health risks during winter may increase, as the risk of winter-related deaths rises with age and is highest in the oldest age groups. The study examined the development of excess winter mortality in Finland over the past 50 years and investigated the impact of individual-level social and health factors. According to the results, the risk of death in winter was elevated for those living in institutions and individuals with memory disorders. On the other hand, other chronic illnesses did not significantly increase the risk of winter mortality.
By the year 2040, the number of individuals with type 2 diabetes is projected to increase by 26% if the incidence of the disease remains at the 2019 level. If the declining trend in incidence observed since 2011 continues until 2040, the future increase in those developing type 2 diabetes would be 8%. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes varies among socioeconomic groups, and the differences between income groups are likely to continue growing over the next two decades.
Scientific Article: Guzman-Castillo, M., Korhonen, K., Murphy, M., & Martikainen, P. (2023). Projections of future burden of pharmacologically treated type 2 diabetes and associated life expectancies by income in Finland: a multi-state modeling study. Frontiers in Public Health, 11, 1141452.
doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1141452
Problematic alcohol use increases the risk of dementia. According to the research, cardiovascular diseases do not explain this elevated risk, even though they are more common among individuals with problematic alcohol use and are also key risk factors for dementia.
Scientific Article: Hu, Y., Korhonen, K., Li, P., Bobak, M., Martikainen, P., & Bijlsma, M. J. (2023). Association between alcohol use disorders and dementia in 262,703 dementia-free Finnish adults: Is cardiovascular disease a mediator?. The Journals of Gerontology: Series A, 78(6), 1045-1052.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glac252
We examined the inequality in mortality related to unintentional drowning in the Baltic countries and Finland from 2000 to 2015. Despite a significant decrease in drowning deaths in these countries during the study period, the drowning mortality remained high at the end of the research period. Among men, rural populations, and those with lower education levels, the risk of mortality was significantly higher compared to others.
Scientific article: Stickley A, Baburin A, Jasilionis D, Krumins J, Martikainen P, Kondo N, Shin JI, Inoue Y, Leinsalu M. Sociodemographic inequalities in mortality from drowning in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-2015: a register-based study. BMC Public Health. 2023 Jun 7;23(1):1103.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15999-9
The Finnish alcohol reform of 1969 lowered the legal drinking age from 21 to 18 years. A study compared the alcohol-related morbidity and mortality between birth cohorts (1944–1954) exposed to the Finnish alcohol reform of 1969 at different ages during the ages of 27–63. The risk of alcohol-related morbidity and mortality was 10% higher for both men and women who were able to purchase alcohol at 18 compared to birth cohorts that could legally purchase alcohol at 21. Increased alcohol-related harm did not show differences among education groups. The findings also support previous research highlighting the particular harmfulness of alcohol availability to young individuals.
Scientific article: Luukkonen, J., Tarkiainen, L., Martikainen, P., & Remes, H. (2023). Minimum legal drinking age and alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality by age 63 years: a register-based cohort study based on the Finnish alcohol reform of 1969. The Lancet Public Health, 8(5), e339-e346. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(23)00049-X
The article is highlighted in a commentary in Lancet Public Health.
The socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality occurs in most cancer types across Europe, and mortality is higher among individuals at the lower end of the social hierarchy. The magnitude of mortality differences varies greatly between countries and over time. A significant proportion (approximately 32% in men and 16% in women, but even up to 46% and 24% in the Baltic region/Central/Eastern Europe) of cancer deaths is associated with education. Socioeconomic disparities in cancer mortality have rapidly increased among women, particularly in lung cancer, including in Finland and other Nordic countries.
Scientific article: Vaccarella S, Georges D, Bray F, Ginsburg O, Charvat H, Martikainen P, Brønnum-Hansen H, Deboosere P, Bopp M, Leinsalu M, Artnik B, Lorenzoni V, De Vries E, Marmot M, Vineis P, Mackenbach J, Nusselder W. Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality between and within countries in Europe: a population-based study. Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2022 Nov 28;25:100551.
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100551
As people age, their consumption and saving behavior tends to change. At the same time, the share of age-related public spending increases, leaving less resources for fiscal stimulus, especially if public debt ratio is already high. Using Finnish data in a Bayesian VAR model, we show that the composition of public spending matters for the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus in an aging economy. Our results suggest that increasing social transfers targeted mostly to the elderly boosts the economy less than increasing consumption expenditure that financially benefits the working aged population. This is due to a different saving and consumption behavior of the population group benefitting from the fiscal impulse. The results imply that in an aging economy targeting fiscal measures becomes more important than ever.
Effective Fiscal Policy in an Aging Economy: Evidence from a BVAR Analysis (etla.fi)
Finland needs a net immigration of up to 44,000 people with the current age and gender structure in order to permanently stabilize the size of the birth and working age cohorts. The number is almost three times the immigration predicted by Statistics Finland. The reason for the high estimate lies in the low birth rate. Additional migration would still not be enough to stop the aging of the population as life expectancy increases, but our maintenance ratio would become more favorable. The effects on the public finances would also be positive.
Read more in the newsletter (In Finnish) >>
The report (In Finnish): Maahanmuutto ja työvoiman riittävyys – taloudellisten vaikutusten arviointia Alho Juha, kangasharju Aki, Lassila Jukka, Valkonen Tarmo. ETLA Raportti No. 132 (2023).
This study looked at how much life insurance would be needed for different households in Finland in order to maintain the standard of living after the death of the family's guardian. The study found that, in general, only about one in ten Finns has voluntary life insurance: mostly among people of working age, those with higher incomes, and those who are married. The insurance gap, i.e. the difference between net losses and life insurance, was the largest among young people, men, higher incomes, and more highly educated people. In addition, it was found that the size of the losses due to death only weakly explains the taking of life insurance.
Scientific article: Ropponen Olli, Kuusi Tero, Valkonen Tarmo. (2023) Mind the Gap – Assessing the Size and Determinants of the Life Insurance Gap. Journal of the Finnish Economic Association Vol. 4 No. 1.
https://doi.org/10.33358/jfea.125004
When future population development is described with stochastic calculations, it is challenging to communicate the results and the related uncertainty to both decision-makers and the general public. The article presents a formulaic framework that can be used to decompose the effects of uncertainty related to future fertility, mortality, and migration into both point forecasts and forecast distributions. An application example uses a tax rate that is sufficient to cover public expenditures caused by an aging population in a given time period.
Scientific Article: Alho Juha & Lassila Jukka. 2023. Assessing Components of Uncertainty in Demographic Forecasts with an Application to Fiscal Sustainability. Journal of Forecasting, 1–9.
The birth rate in Finland experienced a sharp decline around the year 2010. In 2023, according to preliminary data, 43,320 children were born. The number of births was lower than during the famine year of 1868. The total fertility rate in 2023 was 1.26 children per woman, while population replacement would require approximately 2.07 children per woman. Finland's population statistics are world-class; for example, total fertility rates have been available in records since 1776. Nevertheless, our understanding of the reasons for the population decline is incomplete, and changes are not anticipated. The article explores, from a statistical perspective, the reasons behind this.
Juha Alho: Syntyvyys on hankala mallinnettava (2023). Suomen Tilastoseuran vuosikirja 2019-2022, ss. 8— 24, 47 – 49. (In Finnish)