Research results and Policy briefs
Explore the research findings and Policy briefs from the LIFECON project
Policy briefs
Research results
Widowhood in Finland has become less common, occurs later in life, and lasts for fewer years, especially among women. Using comprehensive population register data, researchers from the Helsinki Institute for Demography and Population Health, University of Helsinki and the Max Planck – University of Helsinki Center for Social Inequalities in Population Health show that over the past 30 years, women’s widowhood expectancy has declined while men’s has remained constant, reflecting changing mortality, partnership, and educational expansion. These developments point to a reduced social and economic burden of widowhood on individuals, families, and the welfare state.
Article: Moretti M., Korhonen K., van Raalte A., Riffe T., & Martikainen P. (2025). Evolution of Widowhood Lifespan and Its Gender and Educational Inequalities in Finland Over Three Decades. Demography, 12269717. doi: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12269717
The results show that the effect of first-born girls on fertility has changed over the decades, suggesting that the preference for sons in the 1960s to 1980s shifted towards sex neutrality in the 1990s and even to a slight preference for daughters in the 2000s and 2010s.
As the costs of raising a girl are not greater than those of raising a boy in Finland, the results suggest that the shift might be due to increased female bargaining power. Past literature has shown that females prefer girls over boys or are more neutral than males, who prefer having sons over daughters more often.
Scientific article Riukula, K. Preference for sons: still a trend? Evidence from individual-level data from Finland, 1960–2015. Rev Econ Household (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-024-09718-5
Maternal job loss increases the probability of a son becoming a parent, while paternal job loss decreases it. For paternal job loss, I find negative effects on son’s other outcomes, such as having a spouse, earnings, and employment which might drive the effects on their fertility outcomes. Instead, maternal job loss has no effect on son’s other outcomes.
Riukula, Krista (9.1.2024). “Childhood Shocks and Fertility: Evidence from Parental Job Loss”. ETLA Working Papers No 112.
Education increases the likelihood of having children for women but does not affect family formation for men. The results challenge the common perception that education may hinder family formation for women but helps men in finding a relationship.
ETLA's report: Virtanen Hanna, Silliman Mikko, Kuuppelomäki Tiina, Huttunen Kristiina. Koulutuksen vaikutus perheen perustamiseen miehillä ja naisilla. ETLA Working Papers 116 (2024)
Grandparents serve as a significant source of support for many families with children. However, the ability to provide support depends on the grandparents' life situation, and sometimes, grandparents themselves may be in need of support. Based on our research, grandparents' characteristics that increase the likelihood of support for adult children and grandchildren are associated with mothers having a lower likelihood of purchasing antidepressants. On the other hand, mothers whose own parents are elderly and unwell use antidepressants more frequently than other mothers.
Scientific Article: Grandparental support and maternal depression: Do grandparents’ characteristics matter more for separating mothers?
Niina Metsä-Simola, Anna Baranowska-Rataj, Hanna Remes, Mine Kühn, Pekka Martikainen (2024) Population studies
Doi https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2023.2287493
Press release: Antidepressant Use Lower in Moms Who Have Support From Grandparents, Taylor and Francis
Helsingin sanomat, Tiede 22.2.2024: Isovanhempien tuki voi suojata äitiä masennukselta (In Finnish)
World News Today 16.2.2024: The Support of Grandparents Linked to Lower Antidepressant Use in Mothers, Study Finds
Abortions and preterm births temporarily increased after the significant alcohol tax reduction in 2004. Preterm births increased only in the lowest income household category. The observed phenomenon lasted for about six months from the beginning of the alcohol tax reduction and may be attributed to the effects of increased alcohol consumption on pregnancies. The study compared trends in birth outcomes before and after the tax reduction on March 1, 2004.
Scientific Article: Luukkonen, J., Junna, L., Remes, H., & Martikainen, P. (2023). The association of lowered alcohol prices with birth outcomes and abortions: A population‐based natural experiment. Addiction, 118(5), 836-844.
https://doi.org/10.1111/add.16119
Press release (HY and Addiction) 16.2.2023: When alcohol becomes cheaper, abortions and adverse birth outcomes increase, new research shows
Childhood socio-economic disadvantage appears to be linked to the risk of developing dementia. Elevated risk of dementia was observed in individuals who had lived in crowded conditions during childhood or in families where the father was a single parent. Living in Eastern and Northern Finland also increased the risk of dementia. Specifically, the association between crowded living conditions and the risk of dementia was partly linked to lower socio-economic status in adulthood.
Scientific Article: Korhonen, K., Leinonen, T., Tarkiainen, L., Einiö, E., & Martikainen, P. (2023). Childhood socio-economic circumstances and dementia: prospective register-based cohort study of adulthood socio-economic and cardiovascular health mediators. International Journal of Epidemiology, 52(2), 523-535.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac205
Parents' mental health disorders are known to be associated with an increased risk of self-harm in children. However, on the other hand, a child's self-harm is also linked to the well-being of the parent. The study found that the likelihood of a parent using mental health-related services (such as medication purchases, hospitalizations, and sick leaves) increases when their children are hospitalized for self-harm during adolescence. The increase in service utilization was short-lived and returned to near baseline levels within the first few months. The increase in service utilization was observed only in mothers, particularly those who were employed or highly educated.
Scientific Article: Pitkänen, J., Remes, H., Aaltonen, M., & Martikainen, P. (2023). Moderating role of sociodemographic factors in parental psychiatric treatment before and after offspring severe self-harm. Journal of affective disorders, 327, 145-154.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2023.02.015
Socioeconomic status is known to be associated with healthcare utilization, and specifically, the use of specialized medical care is more common in higher socioeconomic positions. The study observed that similar differences in healthcare utilization can also be seen among young individuals who have self-harmed. Based on the results of the studies, it appears that the higher the education level of a young person's parent, the higher the likelihood that the young person who has self-harmed will make psychotropic drug purchases and use hospital-level healthcare. These socioeconomic differences were particularly evident following incidents of self-harm.
Scientific Article: Pitkänen, J., Remes, H., Aaltonen, M., & Martikainen, P. (2022). Socioeconomic differences in psychiatric treatment before and after self-harm: an observational study of 4,280 adolescents and young adults. BMC psychiatry, 22(1), 1-13.
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12888-021-03654-9
In previous studies, it has been observed that especially in men, being unmarried is associated with health risks. However, we wanted to investigate whether similar connections still exist today, as living alone and other forms of relationships have become more socially accepted. We found that men and women in marriage have a lower risk of cardiovascular diseases than those in cohabitation or living alone. Divorce increased the risk of cardiovascular diseases, and its impact persisted even after entering into a new marriage. Disparities in both men and women have increased from the 1990s to the 2010s. In today's diverse society, marriage has become an even more crucial factor in protecting health.
Scientific Article: Silventoinen, K., Korhonen, K., & Martikainen, P. (2022). Changing associations of coronary heart disease incidence with current partnership status and marital history over three decades. SSM-population health, 18, 101080.
Most unemployed individuals had at least one diagnosed health condition prior to unemployment. Although the most common diagnoses were related to gastrointestinal and musculoskeletal conditions, mental health problems stood out as the factor most clearly linked to reduced labor market participation during unemployment. The association between mental health problems and low employment was particularly strong among men and those with at most basic education. Future research should examine how well health problems are identified within employment services.
Scientific article: Laura Salonen, Liina Junna, Joonas Pitkänen, Antti Kauhanen, Svetlana Solovieva ja Taina Leinonen. Mielenterveyden häiriöiden ja muiden diagnosoitujen sairauksien yhteys myöhempään työllisyyteen työttömillä työnhakijoilla: https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2026061066400
FIOH News, June 12, 2026 (In Finnish): Mielenterveysongelmat hankaloittavat työttömien työhön osallistumista | Työterveyslaitos
In occupational groups with low decision authority among employees have a significantly higher risk of depression, particularly among men. Moreover, the combination of high job demands, and low decision authority increased the risk of depression, whereas high decision authority combined with high job demands reduced it. The study tested the European job exposure matrix for psychosocial exposures (EuroJEM) on nearly 6 million workers in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The findings highlight that increasing employee decision authority can be an important means of supporting mental health and preventing depression.
Scientific article: Salonen L, Falkstedt D, Pan K-Y, Albin M, Mehlum IS, Undem K, Leinonen T, Solovieva S. 2026. Development of a European job exposure matrix (EuroJEM) for psychosocial exposures and their association with diagnosed depression in register-based cohorts. Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment and Health. Online first. https://doi.org/10.5271/sjweh.4279
The article introduces a novel way to measure precarious employment using Finnish register data. Precarious employment refers to accumulation of non-standard features of employment relationships for the individual. The measure was able to identify sociodemographic groups and occupations in which precarious employment can be expected to be common. Occupation-specific subjective job insecurity, based on information from a previous survey, was somewhat more common among those who were defined as precarious employees according to the register data compared to standard employees, but it was most prevalent among high-income employees. However, precarious employees had a considerably higher likelihood of becoming unemployed, so objectively measured, their work was insecure. The measure can be considered to perform well for use in further studies applying Finnish register data.
Scientific article: Leinonen, T., Salonen, L., Bodin, T., Solovieva, S. Assessing the performance of a novel Finnish register-based measure of precarious employment: affected employee groups and subjective and objective employment outcomes. BMC Public Health (2026). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-26520-3
A register study demonstrates that mental health-related sickness absences increased significantly in all studied industrial sectors in 2015–2021. The increase was particularly steep in the social welfare and health care sector and among female white-collar employees under the age of 50. At the same time, anxiety overtook depression as the most common cause of new periods of sickness absence.
Scientific article: Väänänen, A., Gluschkoff, K., Varje, P. & Selinheimo, S. (2025). Mielenterveysperusteisten sairauspoissaolojen kehitys työssäkäyvässä väestössä 2007–2021 Kansallisesti edustava rekisteritutkimus muutostrendeistä ja väestöryhmäeroista. Yhteiskuntapolitiikka, 90(4). https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2025090995094
Finnish Institute of Occupational Health media release 12 September 2025: Study: Mental health-related sickness absences increased especially in the social welfare and health care sector – anxiety became the most common cause | Finnish Institute of Occupational Health
Relatively few studies have explored the link between occupational exposures and dynamic working life patterns, which refers to changes in labour market participation over the working career. These studies varied markedly in terms of study populations, analysis methods, occupational exposures, and outcomes related to working life patterns. Research on biomechanical and psychosocial exposures was most prevalent, with indications that biomechanical factors are associated with reduced work participation. Future research would benefit from more precise definitions of occupational exposures and measures of dynamic working life patterns, a broader inclusion of different types of occupational exposures, and assessments of cumulative exposure. The review included 17 studies, predominantly from Nordic countries.
Scientific article Hasting RL, Oude Hengel KM, Leinonen T, Bültmann U, Mehlum IS, Burdorf A, Turner MC, Salonen L, McElvenny DM, Solovieva S. Mapping dynamic working life patterns and the impact of occupational exposures: a scoping review. BMC Public Health. 2025 Jul 3;25(1):2322. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-23487-5
Despite transition to partial disability pension and thus part-time work, physical workload decreased for only one in five of the respondents, and this workload change was not associated with later transition to full disability pension. In addition to reduced working hours, workplace adjustments may be needed for those on partial disability pension who find their work physically demanding.
Scientific article: Wallius M-A, Kouvonen A, Ervasti J, Leinonen T, Airaksinen J, Lallukka T. Are changes in perceived physical workload and strenuousness of work among partial disability pensioners associated with full disability pension? Scand J Public Health, published online 28 March 2025. https://doi.org/10.1177/14034948251326706
The study found that the migration of highly educated Finnish-born individuals is often temporary, even though it is frequently perceived as permanent. The majority of both men and women who move abroad eventually return to Finland, bringing new knowledge and skills with them.
Sweden is the most common destination for emigration (22% of women and 20% of men). The length of stay abroad is usually relatively short, with only 5% of female and 3% of male returnees with higher education having lived abroad for more than ten years.
Male returnees are better integrated into working life than females. Nearly one-fifth of women (19%) were out of the workforce after returning to Finland, a significantly higher percentage compared to the general population of the same age group (11%).
Scientific article
Toivanen, M, Airaksinen, J, Varje, P, Koskinen, A. & Väänänen, A. (2025) Korkeakoulutetut Suomessa syntyneet paluumuuttajat ja heidän sijoittumisensa työmarkkinoille. Yhteiskuntapolitiikka 90 (1), 20–33. YP 1/25: Korkeakoulutetut paluumuuttajat työmarkkinoilla - YP-lehti
A comprehensive register study found that the income level and wage growth of highly educated male returnees were higher than those of the comparison population. No similar difference was observed among women. This effect was most pronounced in male-dominated industries, particularly in the private sector, where the gender pay gap remained significant.
Migration abroad is often perceived as a brain drain. However, a large proportion of migrants return, bringing new skills with them. Therefore, migration should be seen as a transformation, redistribution, or flow of human capital. As international mobility increases, it will be important to recognize and utilize this capital for women as well, thereby promoting equal income development.
Scientific article
Toivanen, M, Airaksinen, J, Varje, P, Turunen, J, Koskinen, A. & Väänänen, A. (2025) Time spent abroad as a source of human capital – A nationwide study. International Migration, 63, e70011. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.70011
Among the total population, employment expectancy increased from the recession of the 1990s until the 2008 financial crisis, but then stagnated. While employment continued to increase in older ages, these gains were partially offset by losses in employment expectancy at younger working ages over the last 15 years of the study period (1991– 2020).
Socioeconomic status (SES) differences in WLE were both notable and persistent. As an example, in 2020, those in upper white-collar occupations were expected to work seven (men) and nine (women) years longer than their blue-collar counterparts after the age of 25.
Report Trends in working life expectancy by education and occupational social class in Finland, 1991–2020
Review: On average, working life expectancy (WLE) in persons with low education is 30% (men) and 27% (women) shorter than in those with high education. The corresponding numbers for occupational class difference were 21% (men) and 27% (women). Low-educated persons were expected to lose more working years due to unemployment and disability retirement than high-educated persons. Among low-educated persons more working years were lost (WYL) due to unemployment and disability retirement but less due to other types of non-employment than among high-educated persons. Moreover, educational differences in WYL due to unemployment were larger than due to disability retirement.
More research is needed on socioeconomic differences in healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) and potential influences of income on working life duration.
The review was made on 21 studies from 9 different countries.
Sickness absences related to depression, anxiety, and sleep disorders among Finns significantly increase in October-November, while in the summer-September period, there are fewer sickness absences than expected. In late autumn, sickness absences are almost double compared to summer and about a quarter more than in early autumn. Manic episodes related to bipolar disorder, on the other hand, occur more frequently during the bright period in spring and summer, exceeding expectations, and less frequently during the dark period. Seasonal variation in workplaces and healthcare can increase the burden, especially in the fall when common sickness absences, such as depression, anxiety, and sleep disorders, become more prevalent. The study analyzed a total of 636,543 sickness absence periods due to mental health reasons over a 12-year period using the Finnish Social Insurance Institution's sickness absence register.
Read more from the University of Eastern Finland's press release. >>
Scientific Article: Virtanen M, Törmälehto S, Partonen T, Elovainio M, Ruuhela R, Hakulinen C, Komulainen K, Airaksinen J, Väänänen A, Koskinen A, Sund R. Seasonal patterns of sickness absence due to diagnosed mental disorders: a nationwide 12-year register linkage study. Epidemiol Psychiatr Sci. 2023 Nov 9;32:e64. doi: 10.1017/S2045796023000768
Interventions during childhood and adolescence play a key role in reducing sickness absences. The decline is mainly explained by unobserved factors that are stabilised before entering the labour market, or that do not change much during working life. The decline is also partially explained by structural changes in the workforce – more educated workers entered the labour market.
Earlier sickness absence reduces the annual proportion of time spent at work after vocational labour market training, especially among those who had sickness absence due to mental disorders. The underlying reasons are manifold, and more research would be needed. However, the results speak for a need for better targeting of labor policy measures.
Scientific article: Salonen Laura, Solovieva Svetlana, Kauhanen Antti, Hartikainen Elli, Viikari-Juntura Eira, Leinonen Taina. Does previous sickness absence affect work participation after vocational labour market training? A difference-in-differences propensity score matching approach European Journal of Public Health
Migrants care workers clearly had a lower risk of being out of work for more than ten days due to illness than those born in Finland. A recent study compared the sickness absences in Finland of migrant and non-migrant care workers in Finland.
It is much more challenging for educated women with migrant backgrounds to find employment in Finland than for educated men with migrant backgrounds or educated women of Finnish backgrounds. The study examined the transition of unemployed educated people into working life from 2014 to 2019. According to the researchers, new targeted means are needed to support the employment of women with a foreign background, and it would be important for jobs to open doors for skilled women who have moved to Finland.
Read more in the newsletter (In Finnish) >>
Scientific Article (In Finnish): Minna Toivanen, Ari Väänänen. Koulutettujen työttömien ulkomaalais- ja suomalaistaustaisten naisten työllisyyspolut Yhteiskuntapolitiikka-lehti 1/23.
In the 2017 pension reform, the old-age pension age was gradually raised upwards. Since various health problems increase with age, the key question is how the state of health makes it possible to continue working as the retirement age increases. According to our research, the healthy working years of people aged 50–65 have increased between 2000 and 2017. Working despite health problems and poor work ability has also become more common.
Read more in ETK Blog (In Finnish) >>
Scientific article: Mikko Laaksonen, Marko Elovainio, Sakari Kainulainen, Taina Leinonen, Tuija Jääskeläinen, Harri Rissanen, Seppo Koskinen, Changes in healthy and unhealthy working life expectancies among older working-age people in Finland, 2000–2017, European Journal of Public Health, Volume 32, Issue 5, October 2022, Pages 729–734.
In the years after the financial crisis, from 2010 to 2016, the expected working career lengthened for 50-year-olds, but not for 30-year-olds. An increasing number of working years are lost due to unemployment, and unemployment has replaced the disability pension as the biggest cause of lost working time. Looking at each industry, most working years are lost in the fields of accommodation and nutrition, administrative and support services, and art and entertainment.
Read more in the newsletter (In Finnish) >>
Scientific Article (In Finnish): Leinonen, Taina, Viikari-Juntura, Eira, Solovieva, Svetlana. Työajanodotteet ja menetetyt työvuodet yleisessä väestössä ja eri toimialoilla vuosina 2010, 2013 ja 2016. Työpoliittinen aikakauskirja 2/2022:10–22.
The remaining working career is extended when a person who was absent from work due to illness returns to work part-time with a partial sickness allowance. In this case, the time spent unemployed and on a full disability pension is shortened, while the time on a partial disability pension is longer. However, the working careers of partial disability pensioners are remarkably long. The use of partial sickness allowance increases working years, especially in the private sector, while in the public sector, partial disability pension is used more.
Read more in the newsletter (In Finnish>>)
Scientific article: Leinonen, Taina, Viikari-Juntura, Eira, Solovieva, Svetlana. Has the share of the working life expectancy that is spent receiving a partial or full disability pension changed in Finland over the period 2005–2018? A longitudinal register-based study. BMJ Open 2022;12:e061085.
A register based study indicates that the total number of people with dementia will grow significantly in the coming years, and the number of those living at home may even more than double after 2018. No matter how many care places are available, the population’s need for care will grow. Many people with dementia living at home also need a great deal of support and care. Home care for those with substantial care needs is not necessarily cheaper for society than 24-hour care.
Press release of the University of Helsinki 26.8.2026 Number of people with dementia living at home could double by 2040
Scientific article Guzman-Castillo, M., Korhonen, K., Murphy, M., & Martikainen, P. (2026) Future trends in dementia incidence and mortality: Projecting the burden of dementia on long-term care in Finland by 2040. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health.
https://doi.org/10.1177/14034948261471053
Among those who died from dementia-related causes, neither the number of children nor the distance to them was associated with care home use during the five years preceding death. In contrast, when examining all deaths, individuals with at least one child had fewer care home days than those without children, and among women, closer proximity to children was associated with lower care home use. These differences do not, however, have substantial population-level implications, as care home use was generally low among those who died from causes other than dementia. The overall conclusion is that the availability of adult children has only a limited influence on care home use in later life.
Scientific article: Kaarina Korhonen, Elina Einiö, Pekka Martikainen. The Association of Number and Geographic Proximity of Children with Care Home Use Before All-Cause and Dementia Deaths: A Register-Based Study of Finnish Older Adults, The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, 2025, gbaf250, https://doi.org/10.1093/geronb/gbaf250
Men and women living with a partner have lower mortality than those in other living arrangements. In contrast, individuals living alone stand out with higher mortality: their risk of death was up to five times higher than that of those living with a partner and children. Between 1990 and 2020, mortality declined across all living arrangements, and absolute differences between groups mostly narrowed. However, relative differences widened, particularly among those living alone. Education and income only partially explained these mortality differences and their increase.
Scientific article
Ulla K Suulamo, Hanna M Remes, Lasse H Tarkiainen, Pekka T Martikainen
Long-term trends in mortality by living arrangements and the role of socioeconomic factors, Finland 1991–2020 | European Journal of Public Health | Oxford Academic
https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckaf068
The age of onset for cardiovascular disease in the overall population has increased from 68.3 years to 71.0 years. Men still experience an earlier onset than women (e.g., 5.6 years earlier in 2016–2020), but the gender disparity has slightly narrowed (from 6.2 years to 5.6 years). Individuals with lower educational attainment have a higher lifetime risk of developing cardiovascular disease compared to those with higher education. This disparity has slightly narrowed for women but remained largely unchanged for men.
Scientific article: Shubhankar Sharma, Pekka Martikainen, Mikko Myrskylä, Lasse Tarkiainen, Ulla Suulamo Gender and Educational Trends in Lifetime Risk, Age at Onset, Expectancy, and Survival With Cardiovascular Disease in Finland, 1996–2020.
The Journals of Gerontology: Series B 2025;80:gbaf007. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronb/gbaf007
Between 2005 and 2018, formal care use in Finland became increasingly concentrated in the last years of life and slightly decreased among older decedents. Although both trends would contribute to a decrease in care use, the occurrence of death at increasingly older ages led to an increase in unadjusted care use per capita and total use at the population level. As people are living longer, it is likely that the care use at the population level will continue to increase, governments need to prepare by strengthening and supporting the whole care system.
Scientific article: Luca Dei Bardi , Margherita Moretti , Laura Cacciani , Kaarina Korhonen , Pekka Martikainen
Trends in formal care by age and time to death: the use of healthcare and care-home facilities in Finland between 2005 and 2018
European Journal of Public Health, ckaf061,
Since around 2010, life expectancy in residential long-term care (LTC) at age 65, which represents the expected time a 65-year-old will spend in LTC during their remaining lifetime, has decreased in Finland. The study demonstrates that the decrease in life expectancy in LTC was related to sustained declines in admission rates and, particularly among women and nonmarried men, to increased death rates in LTC. Consequently, older adults spend a shorter time in LTC and those living in LTC are in worse health than before. The findings highlight that LTC services need to be designed to meet the increasing demands of older adults living in care.
Scientific article: Korhonen, K., Moustgaard, H., Murphy, M., & Martikainen, P. (2024). Trends in Life Expectancy in Residential Long-Term Care by Sociodemographic Position in 1999–2018: A Multistate Life Table Study of Finnish Older Adults.
The Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, gbae067.
https://doi.org/10.1093/geronb/gbae067
Disparities in mortality among Finns are increasing. The growth in life expectancy for those socioeconomically disadvantaged has come to a halt, while other income groups continue to see an increase in life expectancy. In 2020, life expectancy for the highest income quintile was 84 years, and for the lowest, it was 73 years. The gap has widened by approximately half a year over the past five years.
The reason for the stagnation in life expectancy in the lowest income group is unclear. Causes of death related to alcohol and tobacco continue to be more common in the lowest income quintile than among others. However, changes in these causes of death are not sufficient to explain the halt in the increase of life expectancy in the lowest income quintile. Mortality did not significantly decrease for any cause of death, except for coronary artery disease.
Read more in the news article published by Helsingin Sanomat on January 31, 2024 (in Finnish)
The suicide risk among men has decreased by over half between 1991 and 2019. The risk of male suicide has more than halved between 1991 and 2019. The relative hazard ratio of suicide in manual workers compared to managers and professionals was around 1.6 to 1.8 times higher. The period when the suicide risk started to decline differed by occupational class: a significant decrease compared to 1970s’ levels was seen for managers and professionals already in the 1990s and for lower non-manual employees around 10 years later (in the 2000s). Manual workers only reached the 1970s suicide risk of managers and professionals in the 2000s and 2010s.
The study followed five representative cohorts of Finnish working-age men for nine years each, starting from five different census years (1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010). Each cohort consisted of 300970–332318 men.
The residential area itself does not seem to significantly affect the health or mortality of the residents. However, the differences between low- and high-income neighborhoods are considerable. The total mortality of the neighborhoods belonging to the lowest income quintile in terms of average income was about double compared to the highest income quintile for both men and women. In terms of accidental and violent cases of illness and death, the differences were even slightly larger. The health differences according to the income level of the neighborhoods increased compared to the beginning of the 1990s for both sexes, but the increase in the differences was greater for women.
Scientific article: Lasse Tarkiainen, Pekka Martikainen. Long-term trends in urban-neighbourhood inequalities in cause-specific mortality and hospitalisation – multilevel analyses among individuals nested in Finnish post-code areas, 1991–2018. SSM Popul Health. 2023 Mar; 21: 101323.
Mortality is higher in winter compared to other seasons. As the population ages, the public health significance of health risks during winter may increase, as the risk of winter-related deaths rises with age and is highest in the oldest age groups. The study examined the development of excess winter mortality in Finland over the past 50 years and investigated the impact of individual-level social and health factors. According to the results, the risk of death in winter was elevated for those living in institutions and individuals with memory disorders. On the other hand, other chronic illnesses did not significantly increase the risk of winter mortality.
By the year 2040, the number of individuals with type 2 diabetes is projected to increase by 26% if the incidence of the disease remains at the 2019 level. If the declining trend in incidence observed since 2011 continues until 2040, the future increase in those developing type 2 diabetes would be 8%. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes varies among socioeconomic groups, and the differences between income groups are likely to continue growing over the next two decades.
Scientific Article: Guzman-Castillo, M., Korhonen, K., Murphy, M., & Martikainen, P. (2023). Projections of future burden of pharmacologically treated type 2 diabetes and associated life expectancies by income in Finland: a multi-state modeling study. Frontiers in Public Health, 11, 1141452.
doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1141452
Problematic alcohol use increases the risk of dementia. According to the research, cardiovascular diseases do not explain this elevated risk, even though they are more common among individuals with problematic alcohol use and are also key risk factors for dementia.
Scientific Article: Hu, Y., Korhonen, K., Li, P., Bobak, M., Martikainen, P., & Bijlsma, M. J. (2023). Association between alcohol use disorders and dementia in 262,703 dementia-free Finnish adults: Is cardiovascular disease a mediator?. The Journals of Gerontology: Series A, 78(6), 1045-1052.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glac252
We examined the inequality in mortality related to unintentional drowning in the Baltic countries and Finland from 2000 to 2015. Despite a significant decrease in drowning deaths in these countries during the study period, the drowning mortality remained high at the end of the research period. Among men, rural populations, and those with lower education levels, the risk of mortality was significantly higher compared to others.
Scientific article: Stickley A, Baburin A, Jasilionis D, Krumins J, Martikainen P, Kondo N, Shin JI, Inoue Y, Leinsalu M. Sociodemographic inequalities in mortality from drowning in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-2015: a register-based study. BMC Public Health. 2023 Jun 7;23(1):1103.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15999-9
The Finnish alcohol reform of 1969 lowered the legal drinking age from 21 to 18 years. A study compared the alcohol-related morbidity and mortality between birth cohorts (1944–1954) exposed to the Finnish alcohol reform of 1969 at different ages during the ages of 27–63. The risk of alcohol-related morbidity and mortality was 10% higher for both men and women who were able to purchase alcohol at 18 compared to birth cohorts that could legally purchase alcohol at 21. Increased alcohol-related harm did not show differences among education groups. The findings also support previous research highlighting the particular harmfulness of alcohol availability to young individuals.
Scientific article: Luukkonen, J., Tarkiainen, L., Martikainen, P., & Remes, H. (2023). Minimum legal drinking age and alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality by age 63 years: a register-based cohort study based on the Finnish alcohol reform of 1969. The Lancet Public Health, 8(5), e339-e346. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(23)00049-X
The article is highlighted in a commentary in Lancet Public Health.
The socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality occurs in most cancer types across Europe, and mortality is higher among individuals at the lower end of the social hierarchy. The magnitude of mortality differences varies greatly between countries and over time. A significant proportion (approximately 32% in men and 16% in women, but even up to 46% and 24% in the Baltic region/Central/Eastern Europe) of cancer deaths is associated with education. Socioeconomic disparities in cancer mortality have rapidly increased among women, particularly in lung cancer, including in Finland and other Nordic countries.
Scientific article: Vaccarella S, Georges D, Bray F, Ginsburg O, Charvat H, Martikainen P, Brønnum-Hansen H, Deboosere P, Bopp M, Leinsalu M, Artnik B, Lorenzoni V, De Vries E, Marmot M, Vineis P, Mackenbach J, Nusselder W. Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality between and within countries in Europe: a population-based study. Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2022 Nov 28;25:100551.
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100551
Online discussions among citizens and statistical reality differ considerably when it comes to phenomena related to changes in population structure, such as immigration. Although Finland's population structure has undergone significant transformations, discussions on the Suomi24 online forum are often sparked by factors quite different from those suggested by official statistics. According to a recent study, for example, the sharp decline in birth rates is not generally perceived as a long-term phenomenon. Discussions on immigration, meanwhile, focus heavily on asylum seeking, security, and social benefits, while the economic benefits of immigration receive very little attention in online debates.
Corona dominated the discussions on mortality, although its effect on mortality was minor. In discussions on migration, the major burst was related to the refugee crisis of 2015. In contrast, the wave of immigrants provoked by the Ukrainian war was less discussed.
Methods
Suomi24 discussion forum has been in operation since 2001. Four topic groups were formed. A corpus of 1.26 million posts was formed. The frequencies of nouns and adjectives were counted in the topic groups. On this basis, a vocabulary of approximately 8,000 lemmas was determined.
In each topic group, the language used and its change, was studied by embedding the lemmas into a four-dimensional Euclidean space. The analysis was complemented by reading, on a sample basis, about 2,000 posts. Gemini AI was also used to provide summaries of the posts we had read.
The bursts in the flow of posts were only indirectly related to the demograhic shocks.
Publications in Finnish only
Etla Julkaisut Working Papers 151
Miten väestöshokit näkyvät Suomi24-keskustelupalstalla?
Alho Juha, Lin Julian
Etlan tiedote ja LIFECONin uutinen 16.10.2026
Tutkimus: Suomi24-verkkoyhteisön keskustelut väestörakenteen muutoksista poikkeavat tilastojen todellisuudesta
The economic impacts of immigration are not unequivocally positive or negative, but are decisively influenced by the structure of immigration and the success of integration. Work-based and highly educated immigration clearly yields positive effects for public finances, whereas humanitarian immigration is initially a fiscal burden, although outcomes may improve with effective integration. Those who arrive for protection purposes tend to have lower employment rates and income levels compared to the native population for a prolonged period, even though these differences narrow as their length of stay increases.
The economic impacts of immigration are determined both by who moves to Finland and by how the country supports their integration. With appropriately targeted policies, immigration can enhance labour supply, increase productivity, and strengthen the sustainability of public finances even in the long term.
The economic impact depends primarily on the skills of the newcomers and the success of their integration.
In terms of public finances, the effects differ significantly between groups, but integration measures play a key role: targeted language training, recognition of skills, and swift access to the labour market improve employment and reduce the need for income transfers, as well as deliver benefits across generations. In the long term, Finland needs immigration to stabilise the working-age population and safeguard the conditions for economic growth as the population ages and the workforce declines.
Etla-report: Maahanmuuton taloudelliset vaikutukset: Maahanmuuton rakenne ja kotoutuminen ratkaisevat (Etla Raportti 176)
Etlan memory: Miten maahanmuutto vaikuttaa Suomen talouteen? (Etla Muistio 177)
Etla press release and LIFECON-news 23.3.2026: Etlan raportti maahanmuuton kokonaistaloudellisista vaikutuksista
A cohort-component forecast is based on assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and net migration. In the trend forecast at hand the components of change are assumed to continue to develop as they have done in the recent past. Total fertility is assumed stay at 1.26 children per woman. Mortality is assumed to decline, in each age, as it did before the COVID19 pandemic. Net migration is assumed to be 24 000 per year. The assumptions are purely demographic in nature. In other words no specific assumptions about the possible underlying economic or social processes are made. Yet, the assumption regarding net migration is markedly lower that that of a recent forecast of Statistics Finland. The difference derives from the assessment of the upsurge of in-migration in 2021–2023. In the forecast at hand it is considered a temporary phenomenon, to a larger extent than in the forecast of Statistics Finland. In consequence, population growth is expected to stop, and turn into a slow decline. The results are graphically displayed. In addition to point forecasts, 80% prediction intervals are presented in several places. The forecast is a stochastic one.
Population of Finland, 2025–2070
Valkonen Tarmo, Alho Juha, ETLA Muistio - ETLA Brief 148
As people age, their consumption and saving behavior tends to change. At the same time, the share of age-related public spending increases, leaving less resources for fiscal stimulus, especially if public debt ratio is already high. Using Finnish data in a Bayesian VAR model, we show that the composition of public spending matters for the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus in an aging economy. Our results suggest that increasing social transfers targeted mostly to the elderly boosts the economy less than increasing consumption expenditure that financially benefits the working aged population. This is due to a different saving and consumption behavior of the population group benefitting from the fiscal impulse. The results imply that in an aging economy targeting fiscal measures becomes more important than ever.
Effective Fiscal Policy in an Aging Economy: Evidence from a BVAR Analysis (etla.fi)
Finland needs a net immigration of up to 44,000 people with the current age and gender structure in order to permanently stabilize the size of the birth and working age cohorts. The number is almost three times the immigration predicted by Statistics Finland. The reason for the high estimate lies in the low birth rate. Additional migration would still not be enough to stop the aging of the population as life expectancy increases, but our maintenance ratio would become more favorable. The effects on the public finances would also be positive.
Read more in the newsletter (In Finnish) >>
The report (In Finnish): Maahanmuutto ja työvoiman riittävyys – taloudellisten vaikutusten arviointia Alho Juha, kangasharju Aki, Lassila Jukka, Valkonen Tarmo. ETLA Raportti No. 132 (2023).
This study looked at how much life insurance would be needed for different households in Finland in order to maintain the standard of living after the death of the family's guardian. The study found that, in general, only about one in ten Finns has voluntary life insurance: mostly among people of working age, those with higher incomes, and those who are married. The insurance gap, i.e. the difference between net losses and life insurance, was the largest among young people, men, higher incomes, and more highly educated people. In addition, it was found that the size of the losses due to death only weakly explains the taking of life insurance.
Scientific article: Ropponen Olli, Kuusi Tero, Valkonen Tarmo. (2023) Mind the Gap – Assessing the Size and Determinants of the Life Insurance Gap. Journal of the Finnish Economic Association Vol. 4 No. 1.
https://doi.org/10.33358/jfea.125004
When future population development is described with stochastic calculations, it is challenging to communicate the results and the related uncertainty to both decision-makers and the general public. The article presents a formulaic framework that can be used to decompose the effects of uncertainty related to future fertility, mortality, and migration into both point forecasts and forecast distributions. An application example uses a tax rate that is sufficient to cover public expenditures caused by an aging population in a given time period.
Scientific Article: Alho Juha & Lassila Jukka. 2023. Assessing Components of Uncertainty in Demographic Forecasts with an Application to Fiscal Sustainability. Journal of Forecasting, 1–9.
The birth rate in Finland experienced a sharp decline around the year 2010. In 2023, according to preliminary data, 43,320 children were born. The number of births was lower than during the famine year of 1868. The total fertility rate in 2023 was 1.26 children per woman, while population replacement would require approximately 2.07 children per woman. Finland's population statistics are world-class; for example, total fertility rates have been available in records since 1776. Nevertheless, our understanding of the reasons for the population decline is incomplete, and changes are not anticipated. The article explores, from a statistical perspective, the reasons behind this.
Juha Alho: Syntyvyys on hankala mallinnettava (2023). Suomen Tilastoseuran vuosikirja 2019-2022, ss. 8— 24, 47 – 49. (In Finnish)